Crude oil prices reversed their decline today after the Energy Information Administration reported an oil inventory draw of 1.6 million barrels for the week to September 18. This compares with a draw of 4.4 million barrels for the previous week.

The report came a day after the American Petroleum Institute propped prices up temporarily by estimating a sizeable decline in gasoline stocks, coupled with a modest build in crude oil stocks. Analysts, on the other hand, had expected the EIA this week to report an inventory draw of 2.325 million barrels.

In gasoline, the EIA estimated an inventory draw of 4 million barrels for the week to September 18, compared with a decline of 400,000 barrels for the previous week. This also helped prices up.

Gasoline production averaged 9.3 million bpd last week, up on a week earlier, when gasoline output averaged just 8.8 million bpd.

In distillate fuels, which are giving refiners a headache as demand for them remains a lot more subdued than demand for gasoline, the EIA reported a draw in stocks of 3.4 million barrels. This compares to a build of 3.5 million barrels estimated for the previous week amid still severely limited air travel.

Distillate fuel production last week averaged 4.5 million bpd, compared with 4.4 million bpd a week earlier.

Oil prices were still down at the time of writing, with Brent crude trading at $41.69 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate trading at $39.70 a barrel. The decline is hardly a surprise: it came amid deepening worry about the future state of oil demand as economic reports from different parts of the world suggested that any recovery would be slow. It also came soon after the news broke that Libya was reopening some of its oil export terminals and boosting production.

OilX reported that plans were to raise production to 260,000 bpd, from currently below 100,000 bpd. In a precarious price environment, this production boost was bound to pressure prices despite OPEC+’s stated success with production cuts.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com (View Full Article Here)

Oil prices are set to rise to $60 a barrel by the end of next year as the oversupply will have been drawn down by then, according to Citigroup, which is bullish on oil.

Growing economies will lead to global oil demand returning to the pre-coronavirus levels in late 2021, Citi’s global head of commodities research Ed Morse told Bloomberg in an interview.

According to Citigroup, Brent Crude prices – which slumped below $40 a barrel last week amid growing concerns about demand – are set to average around $55 per barrel next year and recover to $60 a barrel by the end of 2021. WTI Crude – at $37 early on Monday – is expected to jump to $58 per barrel by the end of next year.

Another major bank, Goldman Sachs, also sees prices hitting $60 a barrel and even more next year.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also expected West Texas Intermediate to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of next year, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts, Business Insider reports.

“There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet,” Goldman’s analysts said.

Investment banks are more bullish about next year, but oil traders are bearish about the short term. One of the top independent traders, Trafigura, expects a “supply-heavy” market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as demand recovery stalls.

The market will get worse before it gets better, Ben Luckock, Co-Head of Oil Trading at Trafigura, said on a conference on Monday, as carried by Bloomberg. The oversupply on the market is reaching the point where chartering tankers for floating storage becomes profitable, according to Luckock.

Last week, reports emerged that the world’s top oil traders have been chartering dozens of supertankers for potentially storing oil at sea amid signs that demand recovery has stalled.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com (View full article here)